Dale Jr's Crash Relapse (A NASCAR Chase for the Cup blog post)

That bunny was too fast for you, Son.

   

2004:  Chasing a dream, then a wall

     After suffering a 33rd-place finish at Martinsville, Dale Earnhardt Jr looked to piece together ground lost from the events that took place from that week and rebound with a win at Atlanta. So, what all happened at Martinsville? Everything, including lost the handling just about midway, had a flat-tire, spun out a competitor, lost a pinion; then, to punctuate it, clipped the back bumper of a moving car, which hurt the left-side enough that the 8 team called it a day. Atlanta was all in the cards for Jr, because, with Kurt Busch (42nd) and Jeff Gordon (35th) sidelined with separate engine issues, all that was needed was to come away the track with either a win or a solid top-5 to take the point lead. Then, he wrecked off the backstretch when he attempted to clear Carl Edwards for 3rd-place. Jr was also 33rd the week before at VA. Then proceeded to shake off the bad two races with a win at Phoenix, but, alas, it was simply too much to overcome after that. He finished 11th at Darlington and capped off the season with a 23rd place finish at Homestead in a race where he was no better than 8th, yet no worse than 23rd during the running of that race. He ended the year with 6 wins, 16 top-5s & 21 top-10s, but that Atlanta wreck and some questionable performances (i.e. flat tracks, for example) took the sting off an otherwise successful season. The wreck at Atlanta was a metaphor of sort for the last 10 years for Junior Nation. For every big gain from a win comes devastation with a crash or an all-out bad performance. After the 2004 season was over, Dale Earnhardt Incorporated gave Tony Eury Sr. (Jr's former crew chief and uncle) a team manager role for day-to-day operations. Also, Jr had different chassis for 2005, with his 8 cars going to Michael Waltrip's team and vice versa. It's been a long ten years since Jr has seen consistent success; but, lately, things have indeed turned around for him since the acrimonious end of 04. After enduring some hard times on the track, things have finally clicked for him at Hendrick Motorsports. It took awhile, but it took some hard lessons to get there.

"Think I'm ready to join the dark side now".

2005-2007: The Beginning of the end with Dale Earnhardt Inc.

     

     2005 was the hangover year after living off the high of multiple wins from the previous year. Add in higher expectations, three different crew chief, new chassis from your sister organization, and a new gear rule and you have the worst year of your life since your rookie campaign. Pete Rondeau replaced Tony Sr as Dale Jr's crew chief early in the year with the elder going to a more prominent role at DEI. Things started out well at the Daytona 500 with a hard fought 3rd place finish by Jr who wasn't much of a threat in that race until the closing stages. Then came the worst stretch of their relationship for the tandem. 3 finishes of 24th or worse dropped them from the top-5 in points to a season-low of 26th for the time being, but things got better from that point with 7 consecutive top-15s starting with a 4th at Bristol, which ended at Richmond with a 14th place finish. The experiment lasted only 11 races into the year. Rondeau released from his crew chief role and replaced by competition director Steve Hmiel. While they won at Chicago, those 8 finishes of 20th or worse in their 14 races were a deciding factor towards making the Chase. Only once did the group have a stretch of consecutive finishes inside the top-10, which started once they won Chicago and ended with a 9th place run at New Hampshire Motor Speedway; otherwise, they didn't run well enough to be contenders for another championship run. Tony Eury Jr replaced Hmiel for the rest of the season and the foreseeable future, as well. 

 Crew Chief Imbalance 2005

Crew Chiefs w/Dale Jr.	Average  Start	Average  Finish	Top Tens	Combined Loop Data
P. Rondeau (11 starts)	26.1	15.3	5	76.7
S. Hmiel (14 starts)	29.4	23.6	5	70.3
T. Eury Jr. (10 starts)	19.9	24.1	3	77.1

    

     2006 felt like an extension of the 2004 season, and perhaps Jr's most underrated year besides his 2013 season. They only won Richmond, but made incremental gains at flat tracks and could contend when need be in key races. There were times when they struggled with communication, pit stops or adaptability, they found a way to build on mistakes from 2005 and make the most of it. 2007 was a different story, however. While the overall performances were on par with 2006, but the team failed to finish 8 races, most of them due to engine failures. Add a terrible stretch that saw their advantage on Kurt Busch dwindle from July-August for the 12th and final chase spot, the team couldn't recover from their inconsistency.

   

2008-2011: Beginnings and Hard Times at Hendrick

 So, where are my "wins & championships," Dale?

         Jr's first year at Hendrick was more of a "potential pending" season rather than a "we're close" kinda year. Sure, they had some excellent result, but the issues from DEI were the same with keep up with adjustments on the race track or bad communication between driver & crew chief. While they did win Michigan, the strategy planned by Tony Eury Jr almost didn't work (Jr went 55laps/110 miles on a tank of fuel) as a perfectly timed caution on the last lap sealed the win for the program. The rest of the season was misfortune. They'd either lead a race and then get shuffled back in the running when the car isn't good on a long-run or have an untimely tire failure (Happened twice at Charlotte on separate occasions). This was a constant trend that followed the 88 team for a few years, even with Eury's predecessor, Lance McGrew. Jr and McGrew weren't able to fix the balance issues with NASCAR's Car of Tomorrow. The years after 2008 were pretty terrible, actually; and, the predictions of contention were an afterthought. However, 2011 provided the needed optimism for the program, as Steve Letarte came over from Jeff Gordon's 24 team to be the main crew chief for Jr. The success wasn't necessarily immediate but given that Jr couldn't hit the right setup with McGrew or Eury Jr, Letarte's easy going attitude was a welcome change. After 4 season at Hendrick Motorsports the 88's best points finish was 7th. Not bad, considering the first 3 season, but, alas, far below expectations. 

2012-2014: So, This Is What Contending Looks Like?

Jr's first multiple winning season since 2004

     The last three season are what this team should've been since Jr left DEI in 2007. 2012 was a great year in which he also ended a four-year winless drought by winning at Michigan. Unfortunately, that year feels incomplete because of a sustained concussion at Talladega during the Chase. He subsequently finished 12th in points that year, The last two seasons, however, have shown that the 88 are bonafide contenders for a championship, including 3 wins (Daytona & Pocono x2) for 2014. Only thing missing from his 2013 campaign was a victory; however, he did have 5 2nd place finishes for that year with a 5th place finish in points. If Jr is going to win a championship, he'll have to keep making gains on the competition & do enough to avoid elimination from championship contention. It won't be easy.